Thinking about Life

Avoiding a massive error of affective forecasting

03/09/2023

Mt 20:17-28 As Jesus was going up to Jerusalem, he took the Twelve disciples aside by themselves, and said to them on the way, “Behold, we are going up to Jerusalem, and the Son of Man will be handed over to the chief priests and the scribes, and they will condemn him to death, and hand him over to the Gentiles to be mocked and scourged and crucified, and he will be raised on the third day.” Then the mother of the sons of Zebedee approached Jesus with her sons and did him homage, wishing to ask him for something. He said to her, “What do you wish?” She answered him, “Command that these two sons of mine sit, one at your right and the other at your left, in your kingdom.” Jesus said in reply, “You do not know what you are asking. Can you drink the chalice that I am going to drink?” They said to him, “We can.” When the ten heard this, they became indignant at the two brothers. But Jesus summoned them and said, “You know that the rulers of the Gentiles lord it over them, and the great ones make their authority over them felt. But it shall not be so among you. Rather, whoever wishes to be great among you shall be your servant; whoever wishes to be first among you shall be your slave.

Several years ago a friend gave me a book called “Thinking Fast and Slow” by Daniel Kahneman. The last chapter is called “Thinking about Life” and began with a very insightful survey about marriage. A group of people in Germany were asked about their satisfaction with life over a number of years, leading up to their marriage and several years after their marriage. The graph revealed that the year of their wedding was a high point in happiness, while every year after marriage their satisfaction level declined. Can you relate to that graph in your own married life and the happiness it has brought you?

Here is what Kahneman concludes: “The graph evokes nervous laughter from audiences, and the nervousness is easy to understand: after all, people who decide to get married do so either because they expect it will make them happier or because they hope that making a tie permanent will maintain the present state of bliss.”

Kahneman continues (and this is the critical point): “The decision to get married reflects, for most people, a massive error of affective forecasting. On their wedding day, the bride and the groom know that the rate of divorce is high and that the incidents of marital disappointment is even higher, but they do not believe that these statistics apply to them” (p. 399). Would you raise your hand if you made a similar “massive error of affective forecasting”? Just kidding. I think we all make that massive error when we are young. We are mistaken about what will make us happy.

In the gospel today, Jesus is trying to help his apostles avoid a massive error of affective forecasting, too. He is not talking about marriage, but rather, about discipleship. That is, the disciples have some definite ideas of what following Jesus means, namely, positions of power, royal authority, and being the boss and telling other people what to do.

And they believe that doing those things would bring them happiness. After all, why bother following Jesus if he’s not going to make you happy? Like Daniel Kahneman in his book, so, too, Jesus wants to help his disciples “think about life” and not make a “massive error of affective forecasting.” He tells them bluntly that following him will not be all butterflies and unicorns. Instead, they will have to pick up their cross and learn to be servant-leaders, not bosses in high-back leather chairs who tell others what to do.

But just like it is almost impossible to convince engaged couples that “the divorce rate is high and the incidents of marital disappointment is even higher,” so the disciples did not believe Jesus’ dire warnings about following him. In other words, we are all doomed to make this “massive error of affective forecasting” when we begin our adult life.

My friends, one decisive advantage we have over the original disciples of Jesus is that we know how the story ends. That is, we know how events will unfold on Palm Sunday, Holy Thursday, Judas’ betrayal, Peter’s denial, John’s faithfulness, Mary’s sorrow, the empty tomb, and the glory of Easter Sunday. We have a panoramic perspective, a little like that graph that Dr. Kahneman referred to, showing people’s happiness levels before and after their wedding. All engaged couples should very closely study that graph!

But our faith teaches us more than that graph, because it shows us the real end of the story culminates not here on earth but in heaven, where that “massive error of affective forecasting” will finally be rectified. We will at long-last be truly happy.

This self-correction of our massive error of forecasting happiness is what Lent is all about. For forty days we are reminded that discipleship comes at a cost. Following Jesus does indeed entail immense joy and happiness, but first comes the Cross. There can be no Easter Sunday Resurrection without first a Good Friday Crucifixion. And most of this life will feel more like Good Friday than Easter Sunday. And that is something both Christian disciples and engaged couples would do well to remember.

Praised be Jesus Christ!