Thursday, October 18, 2018

Volatility Index


Investing in Catholicism for the long run
10/12/2018
Luke 11:15-26 When Jesus had driven out a demon, some of the crowd said: "By the power of Beelzebul, the prince of demons, he drives out demons." Others, to test him, asked him for a sign from heaven. But he knew their thoughts and said to them, "Every kingdom divided against itself will be laid waste and house will fall against house. And if Satan is divided against himself, how will his kingdom stand? For you say that it is by Beelzebul that I drive out demons. If I, then, drive out demons by Beelzebul, by whom do your own people drive them out? Therefore they will be your judges. But if it is by the finger of God that I drive out demons, then the Kingdom of God has come upon you. When a strong man fully armed guards his palace, his possessions are safe. But when one stronger than he attacks and overcomes him, he takes away the armor on which he relied and distributes the spoils. Whoever is not with me is against me, and whoever does not gather with me scatters.

Currently, I am reading a fascinating book on investing in the stock market called Stocks for the Long Run written by Jeremy Siegel. Siegel explains in layman’s terms fundamental investing concepts like the price to earnings ratio, or the mean reversion, what major rating agencies provide the triple A rating, or what on earth “quantitative easing” means – that is not a good bowel movement as I used to think – or, the sometimes surprising success of the VIX volatility index. But do not worry, I am not planning on leaving my day job as a priest to become a financial manager or even a so-called day trader. I don’t have any money! In chapter 23, Jeremy Siegel warns that “a little knowledge is a dangerous thing,” and he is clearly talking about me.

But I am learning two things that are enlightening and which, I believe, may prove useful as insights into the spiritual life. First, there are many ways to increase your wealth, to become rich, and stocks are one such investment option, the one Siegel highly suggests. Second, there is always risk in every investment, including stocks, which means you may lose your money and gain nothing. But Siegel insists that compared with the performance of all others investment options, stocks provide the best long-term returns. He writes: “the central tenet of this book [is] that stocks are indeed the best long-term investment for those who learn to weather their short-term volatility” (Preface to Stocks for the Long Run, xix). Just as there are many paths to prosperity, financially speaking, so there are numerous roads to peace and joy, spiritually speaking. And the best road to spiritual success is Christianity, in particular Catholicism. But like Siegel cautioned, we must be willing to “weather short-term volatility.” Siegel argues for “stocks for the long run” and I would urge you to consider “Christianity for the long run.” In the really long run, which includes heaven, Christianity offers you the most sure road to true peace and ultimate prosperity.

In the gospel today, Jesus speaks a lot about demons and expelling demons. The Jews question his authority to dispel demons, even implying he is the head of the demonic army, Beelzebul. Jesus explains that he casts out demons by the finger of God – to highlight how easy it is for him, it is like using his little pinky finger. But notice Jesus also cautions that demonic possessions is a real risk for his disciples. He explains that sometimes the final state of a person ends up being worse than how he began. In this sense, Jesus resembles the financial advice of Jeremy Siegel indicating that being his disciple is the best path to happiness and heaven. Nevertheless, they should be realistic about weighing the risks and rewards of following him. Demonic possession sounds a lot like the “volatility index” where there are short-term set-backs and losses. But the best bet for long-term spiritual investments is Jesus Christ, and the Church he established.  Our Lord assured his disciples in John 16:13: “In the world you will have trouble, but take courage, I have conquered the world.” You might say the whole Bible might be given a new title, echoing that of Siegel’s book, and we could call it: Christianity for the Long Run.  That is the central tenet of the Bible.

My friends, maybe it would help to see our daily difficulties and excruciating earthly experiences in light of long-term investment in the stock of Christianity. Every investor, whether he invests in financial instruments or spiritual ones, encounters volatility, or to use the Biblical language, demonic difficulties. We face physical illnesses like cancer, we find emotional turmoils like divorce, we discover financial set-backs like a lost job, we endure relationship woes like family feuds, we even hear about bickering and back-biting among bishops in the Church. All these risks and short term losses are part of the volatility we should expect to experience as we stay the course with Christ. But some people are day traders and do not invest for the long run, seeking quick, easy and immediate gains, but they will find it hard to find both happiness and heaven with that strategy.

Of course, I do not know if stocks are the best investment for financial success. Please consult your personal financial adviser – I am keeping my day job! But I do know that Jesus Christ and his Church are the most sound investment you can make for eternal peace and enduring prosperity.

Praised be Jesus Christ!

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