My Picks for Pope

Pondering who will be the next successor of St. Peter

04/29/2025

John 3:7b-15 Jesus said to Nicodemus: “‘You must be born from above.’ The wind blows where it wills, and you can hear the sound it makes, but you do not know where it comes from or where it goes; so it is with everyone who is born of the Spirit.” Nicodemus answered and said to him, ‘How can this happen?” Jesus answered and said to him, “You are the teacher of Israel and you do not understand this? Amen, amen, I say to you, we speak of what we know and we testify to what we have seen, but you people do not accept our testimony. If I tell you about earthly things and you do not believe, how will you believe if I tell you about heavenly things? No one has gone up to heaven except the one who has come down from heaven, the Son of Man. And just as Moses lifted up the  serpent in the desert, so must the Son of Man be lifted up, so that everyone who believes in him may have eternal life.”

Have you picked your favorite cardinals to be pope yet? Bishop Taylor was here for confirmation Masses last weekend and I asked him if he had a favorite cardinal to become pope. He replied: “I don’t know who will be the next pope, but I know a few cardinals who I sure hope do not become pope!” But that answer still narrowed down the list from the 135 who will vote.

I have read several different articles on possible “papabile” – those cardinals that seem “pope material” – but all authors agree it is impossible to predict the outcome. Just like Jesus said in the gospel today: “The wind blows where it wills, and you hear the sound it makes, but you do not know where it comes from or where it goes; so it is with everyone who is born of the Spirit.” The Holy Spirit alone knows who will be the 267th Vicar of Christ.

So, since it’s anybody’s guess who will be the visible head of the Church, let me share my own papabile picks. And we can divide the cardinals into two categories: Vatican insiders and Vatican outsiders. We sometimes divide U.S. presidential candidates along similar lines: those “inside the beltway” and those “outside the beltway.”

One of the Vatican insiders is Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the former Vatican Secretary of State. His role would be comparable to Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state. He was a close collaborator of Pope Francis, held one of the most influential offices in the Vatican, and has vast international exposure.

In other words, almost every Roman Catholic – and certainly every cardinal elector – has heard his name, so he is a known commodity. And theologically, he is moderate, neither a flaming liberal or a radical traditionalist. Parolin is on everyone’s short list of papabile, including all the articles I read.

One of my personal favorites is Cardinal Christoph Schonborn, the retired archbishop of Vienna, Austria. When I was in seminary, I listened to 10 cds of him explaining the entire Catechism of the Catholic Church. And he was brilliant. He knows the Catechism forward and backward because he was the general editor when Pope St. John Paul II published it in 1992.

Even though Cardinal Schonborn is 80 years old, and cannot cast a vote in the conclave, he could still be elected. That is, he does not enjoy “active vote” to elect, but he still has a “passive vote” to be elected. And therefore, he is definitely pope material and was a front-runner back in 2005 when JPII died and in 2013 when B16 retired.

Now let me share two Vatican outsiders that are also pope material. One is Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines. Interestingly, he is both an insider and an outsider. Even though he comes from far away, he heads the Dicastery for Evangelization within the Vatican. Benedict XVI made him a cardinal over 12 years ago, and he is only 67 years old today.

That relative youthful age means he would potentially serve as pope for a very long time. But remember that John Paul II was a mere baby cardinal at 58 when he became pope. So I really like Cardinal Tagle's chances, and pray he might be our next pope. I know a lot of Filipinos here at I.C. who would flip out if Tagle were the 267th pope.

Finally, there are several strong cardinals candidates from Africa, but I prefer Cardinal Peter Turkson from Ghana. We should note that if elected, Cardinal Turkson would not be the first African pope. Why not? Well, back in the 5th century – from 492 to 496 – Pope Gelasius I served as bishop of Rome. The explosion of Catholicism in Africa, and a charming personality, make Cardinal Turkson a very viable papabile.

By the way, you may have noticed I did not include any of the 10 cardinals from the United States on my short list of papabile. I am not anti-American in praying for papabile. Rather, one handicap of American cardinals – which they share with the general population – is they are limited in the languages they speak, usually only English, Spanish, and Italian.

But the pope should be conversant in many languages, because he is the pope of the whole world. And the fact that the Church is Catholic means it is present everywhere and speaks all languages. It would be tragic if the Holy Father could not speak to his own spiritual children throughout the world.

So, those are my four papal picks, for what they are worth. Keep an eye on Cardinals Parolin, Schonborn, Tagle, and Turkson. But now that I have mentioned their names, they probably will not be the future pope. Why not? Because “the wind blows where it wills,” not where Fr. John wills.

Praised be Jesus Christ!